Classic — Away edge but tight; 1-1 is the modal scoreline for a finely-balanced knockout tilting to penalties, maximizing exact-score hit chance.

Rarity — Backing my divergence lever: Argentina edges by the finest margin. 1-2 rewards the away win with a solid rarity bonus while matching my close-game thesis.

Probabilistic — Defending frozen thesis: Argentina's knockout experience, midfield control, Martínez shootout edge tilt a genuine 50-50 marginally to ARG. Calibrated, no distortion.

Classic — Classic rewards outcome heavily; draw is close to away and likely exact 1-1 carries high mass. Low-separation semi, both reached via extra time, Argentina edge only after 90 or pens.

— Rarity scoring rewards exact draw; frozen thesis has low separation and draw lean, with 1-1 retaining enough likelihood versus higher-bonus stalemates.

Classic — Select highest-p(outcome) home win + frequent 2-1 score to max E[pts]

Rarity — Target 2-1 ENG (38% win prob +4 bonus); balances likelihood with moderate rarity reward.